Global oil supply in 2025 is expected to reach 106.3 million barrels per day (b/d), which is 3.1 million b/d higher than in 2024, according to the monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In October, the organization’s analysts had projected an increase of 3 million b/d, to 106.1 million b/d. The forecast has now been raised by 140 thousand b/d, the report notes.

For 2026, the IEA expects global oil supply to reach 108.7 million b/d, which is 2.5 million b/d higher than the projected 2025 level. The estimated pace of demand growth has been increased by 100 thousand b/d, to 2.5 million b/d.

Analysts estimate that the increase in supply from OPEC+ participants will amount to 1.4 million b/d in 2025 and 1.3 million b/d in 2026; while non-OPEC+ countries are expected to add 1.7 million b/d and 1.2 million b/d, respectively.

IEA experts note that they have raised the production forecast for OPEC+ countries by 40 thousand b/d in 2025 and by 70 thousand b/d in 2026, mainly due to quota growth and stable production in Iraq. The production growth forecast for non-OPEC+ countries was increased by 100 thousand b/d in 2025 and by 20 thousand b/d in 2026, reflecting higher production estimates in the United States.

The IEA reports that in October, global oil supply declined by 440 thousand b/d compared to September, to 108.2 million b/d, due to production drops in several OPEC+ countries. Conversely, supply from non-OPEC+ countries rose by 80 thousand b/d as volumes from North Sea and Canadian oil fields returned to the market after seasonal maintenance, the report states.

Considering the agency’s forecast for global oil demand this year at 103.88 million b/d, the market surplus could exceed 2.4 million b/d. In 2026, the IEA expects world oil demand to reach 104.65 million b/d. Accordingly, the surplus next year could exceed 4 million b/d.