According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) report, in 2024, global gas demand rose by 2.8%, to a record 4.21 trillion cubic meters. Caspian Energy Media reports with reference to AZERTAC. In 2025, global gas demand is expected to see a 2% increase, reaching 4.292 trillion cubic meters.
For comparison, global gas demand in 2019 was estimated at 3903 billion m3, which was 1.4% more than in the previous year, 2018.
The European Union (EU) countries consumed about 313 billion cubic meters of gas in 2024, which is 40% less than consumption in 2019. Of the total consumption of the 28 EU countries in 2019, 170 billion m3 was covered by own production and 390 billion (according to other sources, 325.5 billion m3) was obtained from external sources. At the same time, pipeline gas imports into the EU increased by 3%, up to 157 bcm in 2024 due to supplies from Russia, Norway and Azerbaijan, the report of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) states. Pipeline shipments to the EU increased by 3% in 2024. In total, in 2024, the whole of Europe imported 101.27 million tons of LNG (238.99 billion cubic meters), of which the EU accounts for about 156 billion cubic meters (an increase of almost 50% compared to the year of 2019). That is to say, pipeline gas supplies have almost equaled LNG supplies, even despite a slight annual decrease in 2024. For comparison, imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the European Union (EU) in 2019 increased by 75 percent compared to the previous year, to 108 billion cubic meters. This was stated in the European Commission’s gas market report for the last quarter of 2019. The share of LNG in natural gas imports to the EU in 2019 was 27 percent, and the share of LNG in gas consumption was 22 percent.
The demand for LNG is confirmed by the IEA report, and though the halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine on 1 January 2025 does not pose an imminent supply security risk for the European Union, it could increase European LNG import requirements and further tighten global market fundamentals in 2025, the report notes.
Thus, the growth in natural gas demand in 2024 is mainly driven by the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for almost 45 percent of the growing gas demand in 2024 due to continued economic growth in a number of countries.
Gas use for industry and for the energy sector’s own needs were the primary drivers behind global trends and met almost 45% of demand growth. There was a modest recovery in Europe’s industrial gas demand, although it remained well below pre-crisis levels.
The report separately presents a number of key regional factors for increasing gas consumption. In particular, in India, powerful heatwaves during the summer of 2024 drove up gas-fired power generation to multi-year highs. Gas demand for power generation in India rose by 32% in the May-July period y-o-y as higher cooling needs increased electricity use.
In South America, both Brazil and Colombia faced extreme droughts last year, limiting their hydropower output and sharply increasing the call on gas-fired power plants, with most incremental gas demand met via LNG. In Europe, slow wind speeds in the first half of November 2024 led to a sharp decline in wind power output y-o-y. Gas-fired power plants played a key role in providing backup to the power system by increasing their output by nearly 80% y-o-y.
According to the IEA’s forecast, Africa and Asia are also set to contribute to the LNG supply growth in 2025.
If the seasonal increase in gas demand in the Asia-Pacific region is due to the summer factor, then winter is the major driver of consumption growth in Europe.
Thus, in December 2024, gas consumption in the EU increased by 9.3% compared to the same period last year and reached 40 billion cubic meters. There is an increase in the indicator due to increased demand in the energy and housing sectors, after seven months of decline. The decline in wind and hydroelectric power generation meant that the region's electricity grids had to rely heavily on gas-fired power plants to stabilise the grids, the document notes. In addition, colder weather has increased the demand for gas for heating, and industrial gas consumption is also growing.
In particular, gas demand in Germany in December 2024 increased by 7% to 10 billion cubic metres, in Italy by 8.6% to 7.9 billion cubic metres, in France by 3.5% to 4.3 billion cubic metres, and in Spain by 16% to 3.2 billion cubic metres. The UK increased its gas consumption by 3.2% to 6.8 billion cubic metres.
Pipeline gas imports into the EU in December last year amounted to 13.7 billion cubic metres - 2% higher than the level in November 2024, and 1% more than December 2023. Overall, in 2024, pipeline deliveries to the EU increased by 3% - to 157 billion cubic meters. The growth is due to increased supplies from Russia, Norway and Azerbaijan, notes GECF.
According to the GECF report, total gas consumption in China in November last year increased by 1.7% year-on-year to 35.6 billion cubic meters. Overall, for 11 months of 2024, gas demand in China increased by 9.3% - to 392 billion cubic meters.
Deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe in December decreased in annual terms by 1.7% - to 11.06 million tons. The decrease in LNG imports is due to a decrease in supplies from the United States. LNG imports from Asian countries decreased by 2.7% to about 25.6 million tons. In total, Europe imported 101.27 million tons in 2024, Asia - 283.98 million tons.
The largest suppliers of liquefied gas in December were the USA, Australia, Qatar, and Russia with 3 million tons.
Overall, global LNG exports amounted to 414.28 million tons in 2024. Russia became the second largest gas supplier to the EU after Norway by the end of 2024, overtaking the United States, as follows from statistics released by the European think tank Bruegel. Supplies of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU increased by 21% to a record 21.5 billion cubic meters. While the report points to the competition that also revolved between Russia and the United States for LNG supplies to the EU in 2019.
In 2018, Qatar exported 30 billion cubic meters of LNG to the EU, followed by Russia with 21 billion cubic meters and the United States with 17 billion cubic meters.
Spain - 22.4 billion cubic meters, France - 22.1 billion cubic meters, Great Britain - 18 billion cubic meters, Italy - 13.5 billion cubic meters, Belgium - 8.8 billion cubic meters and the Netherlands - 8.6 billion cubic meters were the largest importers of LNG in 2019.
LNG imports in 2018 cost the EU 15.4 billion euros, and in 2019 – about 16.2 billion euros. In 2024, the EU paid over 32 billion euro for LNG. In general, the EU’s "Green Deal" has saved 59 billion dollars over the specified period of time. In particular, since the launch of Europe's "Green Deal" in 2019, the (ever-increasing) number of wind and solar parks has allowed the Union to avoid paying 53 billion dollars in import of 92 billion cubic meters of gas, which accounts for 37% of the change in EU gas consumption from 2019 to 2024.
Europe recorded 4,838 periods of day-ahead power prices falling to zero or below in 2024, which is almost twice as high as in 2023 (2,442). Such low electricity prices indicate not success, but a number of serious problems in the economy. Rising renewable generation, sluggish demand, and constrained grid flexibility were the major reasons that caused such situation, according to a new report from Montel Analytics.
One of the main reasons for negative prices was the high share of renewable energy, which reached a record 50.4% in Europe’s energy mix. At the same time, fossil fuels accounted for less than 25%, while nuclear power grew to 24.7% due to the restoration of French nuclear power plants. However, weak energy transmission infrastructure between countries with green generation, such as Finland, Spain, Portugal and their neighbors, leads to an oversupply of electricity and falling prices. Lower electricity prices have a negative impact on investments in renewable energy. Low incomes jeopardize the development of new projects and the modernization of networks.
Home solar panels partially offset this decline, but the industrial sector remains below the level recorded before the pandemic. This situation indicates a weakening of the region's economy.
Gas prices, on the contrary, increased by 5.6% and reached 43 euros per megawatt hour. Although gas reserves in Europe remained at a safe level (76% at the beginning of winter), on the other hand, geopolitical tensions and reduced supplies from Russia are keeping prices high, which hinders the stabilization of the energy market and leads to a revision of energy policy and an increase in demand for natural gas amid a new wave of high prices.
