The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently attempted to temper hopes for a recovery in the oil market by publishing a bearish monthly report, noting for the third consecutive month a slowdown in demand growth for 2025–2026. The IEA expects that average oil demand growth will reach 680,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 700,000 barrels per day in 2026. The Paris-based organization also noted that “observed” oil stocks reached a 46-month high of 7.8 billion barrels in June, even though OECD inventories were approaching a ten-year low of just 2.8 billion barrels.

Recently, OPEC raised its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per day, citing stronger economic performance in key regions. By 2026, global oil consumption is expected to average 106.52 million barrels per day, which is 100,000 barrels per day higher than last month’s estimate.