Caspian Energy (CE): What does Eastern Partnership mean to the EU? To what extent has the trade-economic partnership been expanded with the Eastern Partnership countries?

Olivér Várhelyi, European Union Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement: As its name indicates, this is first and foremost a partnership between the Eastern neighbours and the EU.  The Eastern Partnership – a joint policy initiative - is based on close cooperation through which we offer tangible benefits to citizens and the economies of our partner countries, leading to an increased political and economic integration within the region and with the EU.

For the last 14 years this Partnership has been a successful tool for building resilience and promoting our shared values. Furthermore, recognizing the European perspectives of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, and granting the status of candidate country to Ukraine and to Moldova, are proof of its success bringing these countries closer to the EU.

We are convinced that this regional framework remains a valid and important tool – in synergy with our enlargement policy – to address existing challenges from energy supply to food security. There is still so much the Eastern Partnership can do to promote a stable, peaceful and prosperous Europe and Eastern Neighbourhood, to the benefit of both. Through the Eastern Partnership, which includes a 17 billion euro worth of Economic and Investment Plan, the EU is contributing to a more diversified economies in the region attracting investment and creating growth and jobs. It has also opened more trade and business opportunities as we improve connectivity, i.e. transport and digital infrastructure, energy security and efficiency infrastructure, as well as invest in young people. Moreover, the EU has concluded Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as part of our Association Agreements with those countries. These are some of the EU’s most ambitious agreements worldwide. They eliminate most tariffs and quotas in our trade as well as providing for alignment of their national legislation with EU legislation in areas such as public procurement, food and product safety. We also have close economic ties with Azerbaijan. Noteworthy is the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement - with negotiations underway to update it - that aims to further boost trade. All this bring our partners’ economies closer to the EU internal market, bringing jobs, growth, innovation and higher standards to the people of the region. Trade between the EU and the Eastern Partnership region has increased by over 20% in a decade, and the EU is now the main trading partner for four of the partners.

CE: What criteria should a candidate for EU enlargement meet?

Olivér Várhelyi: The European Union is an anchor of peace, stability, and prosperity in the world. And enlargement is a key policy as well as our primary tool to spread peace, stability, and prosperity further to our partners in our neighbourhood who are committed to our values and wish to join us.

The European Commission has been relentlessly working on advancing the accession process for the Eastern partners and the Western Balkans.

From 2023, our annual enlargement package will include 10 countries, as Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia are now also part of the enlargement reporting process. We will provide a full assessment of the implementation of their progress in the autumn and make recommendations on the way forward. But let me be clear; enlargement remains a merit-based process. There are no shortcuts; the Copenhagen criteria must be met by all. Also, important to underline that the process follows the new methodology, so the fundamentals are at the centre of our assessment.

CE: What are the values that the enlargement policy is based on, what is its practical expediency for the EU? What real problems of the European space does it allow to solve?

Olivér Várhelyi: The EU enlargement policy aims to promote peace, stability, and reconciliation in Europe. Therefore, for any country it is a strategic choice to apply for EU membership. The Western Balkans and lately, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have chosen to be part of an alliance of strong and prosperous nations. Also accepting these countries was a strategic choice on the EU’s side as negotiations at the end lead to the full EU membership offering numerous benefits. One of the first, most visible benefits is that these countries can join the Single Market where goods, people, capital and services are free to move.

Therefore, enlargement promotes economic growth and prosperity for our partner countries, fostering economic integration and cooperation.

For this reason, at the beginning of this Commission’s mandate we set up a substantial EUR 30 billion Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans with which we are progressing well. We approved another 14 investment flagship projects. So in total we approved 54 flagship investments with a value of EUR 2.3 billion in EU grants, that will leverage up to EUR 8 billion in investment in the next years.

Being part of the enlargement policy also means that we are there when it is needed. As the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine needed fast mitigation, the EU decided to support the Western Balkans with a EUR 1 billion Energy Support Package, to help these countries to cushion the drastic increase of energy prices for businesses and vulnerable households in the immediate term, and to support the energy transition and security of supply over the short and medium term. This year we disbursed the first tranche to all our partners in the Western Balkans - EUR 450 million, anticipating 90% of the overall EUR 500 million budget support. We look forward to the implementation of the national energy action plans to disburse the rest of the funds. The second part of the package – also worth EUR 500 million – is provided via the Western Balkans Investment Framework to support the region over the short- to medium-term.

Moreover, as there is a new momentum behind enlargement, we want to accelerate the accession of the Western Balkans. Therefore, last month we announced a new growth plan for the region. This new plan is based on four pillars. First, to increase the integration with the EU’s Single Market well before accession. Second, to boost regional economic integration based on EU rules. Third, to deepen reforms to accelerate regional growth and promote economic convergence. And fourth, an increased package of pre-accession funding to support all of this.

The message from the EU is clear; we are ready to reinforce our ties with enlargement countries and accelerate the accession process. Certainly, for this work, we also need a firm commitment from our partners to continue and accelerate the implementation of their EU reforms and reinforce regional cooperation so we can all build on the enlargement momentum.

CE: What are the outcomes of the Eastern partnership – EU summit dated 2021? How is the cooperation program being implemented in today’s conditions?

Olivér Várhelyi: At the 6th Eastern Partnership Summit in December 2021, EU Member States and partners reaffirmed their strong partnership and solidarity. Together, they agreed to focus on an agenda of recovery, resilience, and reform, centred around two pillars to bring our people and economies closer together: good governance, and investment through the Economic and Investment Plan (EIP).

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has only made these priorities more relevant. However, in order to make the best possible use of the Eastern Partnership, it has to work in a way that is more flexible, focused and tailor-made to address the different needs and priorities of each partner country and that supports the EU path of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. Through this revitalised framework, we will continue to step up our engagement on security, good governance, and socio-economic recovery. We will continue to invest in the green and digital transition, energy independence and health resilience. Our vision and determination are very much shared both by Member States and partners. The continued implementation of the EUR 17 billion Economic and Investment Plan (EIP) will be key for supporting these priorities across the region. The EIP is already delivering on the ground. Less than two years after the EIP was launched, EUR 5.3 billion have already been mobilised through bilateral and regional grants, blending operations and guarantees, of which EUR 3.2 billion are supporting the implementation of flagship projects.

In Azerbaijan, for example, our assistance has contributed to rolling out high speed internet to rural areas, improving waste management, or saving energy and money by making buildings more energy efficient. Moreover, we are also connecting the EU and the South Caucasus in a very physical sense through digital and energy cables under the Black Sea.  

CE: In the recent exclusive interview to Caspian Energy, PM of North Macedonia Mr. Dimitar Kovachevski spoke about the progress of the accession negotiations with the EU. When do you expect North Macedonia to become a full-fledged member of the EU?

Olivér Várhelyi: The holding of the first political Intergovernmental Conference with North Macedonia last year was a major breakthrough and marked the beginning of a new phase in the EU accession process. The Commission launched immediately the screening of the EU acquis, which is the first step in the negotiating process. The screening is firmly on track and is proceeding smoothly.

The date of accession will depend on the speed of implementation of EU related reforms. Over the upcoming period, North Macedonia needs to use the full potential of the screening process to accelerate reforms, focussing on key areas of the rule of law, the judiciary, the fight against corruption and organised crime, as well as the public administration reform. Progress on these fundamental reforms will determine the overall pace of negotiations. Further, North Macedonia has committed to amending its constitution. This is a sovereign decision. The country provides a good example of a multi-ethnic society. Amending the constitution will further advance fundamental rights. Therefore, it is important that both government and opposition, as well as other parts of the society, work together for the EU future of North Macedonia.  On our side, we remain committed to supporting North Macedonia to advance on its EU accession path.

CE: How do you assess the cooperation with Türkiye, a key partner of the EU?

Olivér Várhelyi: Türkiye remains a candidate country and a key partner of the European Union. We have a strong, strategic interest in the development of a cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship with Türkiye. The current geopolitical situation makes it ever more relevant to intensify cooperation for our shared prosperity and stability, including in the field of connectivity, digital, energy, human capital, migration and trade. As regards energy, the European Union seeks predictable and reliable partners for energy diversification and security. Türkiye continues to be a reliable transit country of natural gas and plays a central role in the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor. There is considerable potential in stepping up cooperation across the board, including the development of offshore wind energy, green energy transition, nuclear safety and security. In this regard, the newly established Turkish Investment Platform opens the door to Türkiye to the European Fund for Sustainable Development+ that will mobilise capital and leverage funding to European and Turkish businesses and private sector. This innovative financial instrument will ensure that the EU can provide guarantees to mutually beneficial investments in Türkiye, through the support of the European financial institutions, including in the field of energy.

Thank you for the interview

Caspian Energy (CE): Mr. Levits, how would you assess the results of the visit made to Azerbaijan early in March?

Egils Levits, Fmr. President of the Republic of Latvia: Latvia and Azerbaijan have built stable bilateral ties and Latvia is keen to continue political dialogue on all levels. Local governments in both countries have already signed 14 different cooperation agreements, while Latvia and Azerbaijan will mark the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations in 2024. Economic relations between Latvia and Azerbaijan have been on the rise in recent years. We are ready to discuss deeper cooperation in areas such as information and communications technologies, smart energy and green technologies. Transport and logistics are another sector. Azerbaijan is key for EU’s efforts to diversify natural gas suppliers and routes, thereby strengthening Europe’s energy independence. We would like to expand this cooperation to renewables.

Latvia is one of those NATO member states that support ever closer cooperation between the Alliance and Azerbaijan in scope of the Partnership for Peace initiative. It is committed to keep Latvian embassy in Baku as the Allied contact point embassy until 2024.

Latvia is ready to contribute to stronger international organisations and rules-based international order – a goal that could be pursued more successfully together with Azerbaijan, and in the build-up to Latvia’s candidature to the UN Security Council in 2025.

 CE: What are your impressions of the 10th Global Baku Forum held with your participation?

Egils Levits: It was an honour and great pleasure to participate at the opening of the 10th Baku Global Forum in the spring of 2023. In times when the world is changing rapidly and so unpredictably, we need truly global dialogue. The insights of current and former leaders assembled at the Baku Global forum are founded on real experience.

I was especially glad to hear the growing support for the establishment of an ad hoc international tribunal to try Russia for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. It is of utmost importance that the international community responds to such a grave attack on the international rules-based order, embodied in the UN Charter since 1945.

This was my message also when introducing the discussion on how to foster resilience in the face of multiple crises and threats to security of both states and individuals.

CE: Cooperation in which sectors of the economy promotes the establishment of much closer relations between our countries?

Egils Levits: Historically the Latvian companies have been strong in exporting to Azerbaijan products from the traditional sectors of agriculture, food and pharmaceuticals. However, we would like to add value to our trade relations in Azerbaijan by offering Latvian smart city, green technology and logistics solutions.

For Azerbaijan companies it is important to know that we are in the centre of the innovative North European region, and we can become gateway to European single market for your companies.

During the recent visit the Director General of the Investment and Development Agency of Latvia, Kaspars Rožkalns, signed the Memorandum of Understanding with its counterpart – the Export and Investment Promotion Agency of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The main cooperation areas outlined in the memorandum are bioeconomy, digitalization and biomedicine, with a special emphasis on pharmaceutics. Transport and logistics are an area where we see cooperation increasing. In May 2023, Latvian national airline airBaltic restarted direct flights between Riga and Baku, helping not only businesspeople to travel but allowing tourism to increase once again.

CE: Could you please tell us about trends registered in the field of economic relations of both states?

Egils Levits: After the global COVID-19 pandemic and the supply chain disruptions that followed, Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine has destabilized international trade. However, the trade volumes between our countries indicate growth and there are planned activities in the future, which can accelerate our economic cooperation.

For example, the Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry with their Estonian and Finnish partners are engaged within the “LEF network to Azerbaijan” project. This project will be a good opportunity for Azerbaijan companies to make new contacts with the Baltic-Nordic region countries. For the next three years the plans of this project include mutual trade missions and business events.

CE: Azerbaijan is contributing to the energy security of the European Union. What are the prospects of cooperation between EU and Azerbaijan in the area of renewable energy?

Egils Levits: The current geopolitical situation pushes us to work harder towards energy transition and reaching global climate goals by reducing the dependency on fossil resources. We know that in addition to Azerbaijan’s already existing thermal and hydro power plants, there is a huge potential for the wind energy generation from the Caspian Sea.

Similarly, in Latvia we have plans to develop more onshore wind farms, as well as offshore wind energy capacity from the Baltic Sea.

We support the EU–Azerbaijan Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the field of energy. We are also glad to hear about the recent visit of the Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, to Azerbaijan and that the future cooperation in renewable energy exports to the EU were discussed.

During my visit, Latvian entrepreneurs visited the hybrid (solar and wind) alternative energy station in Gobustan, and Latvia would like to see Azerbaijan succeed in harnessing the potential of renewable in power generation.

The EU and its companies could help with our know-how, technology and private investments. In order to ensure the conditions for rapidly scaling up renewable energy generation capacity investment, we would encourage Azerbaijan to proceed with an effective auction regime for renewable energy on the back of the state-of-the-art framework that has been developed with the technical assistance provided by the EBRD.

Thank you for the interview

Caspian Energy (CE): Your Excellency, what are the major objectives and tasks of the formed government?

Marcel Ciolacu, Prime Minister of Romania: Our objectives are essential for the balanced and sustainable development of Romania, as we proposed through the Governance Program.

Obviously, we have in mind the reduction of the effects that are felt both socially and economically, against the backdrop of the difficult context generated, not only for us, by the conflict in the immediate proximity of the borders and which, let’s not forget, superimposed on post-pandemic crises.

However, we have focused our goals on immediate development needs and perspective projects, and they converge towards economic and social modernization. We have to make reforms and investments that the Romanian society and economy need at this moment, and our success depends on an efficient and transparent management of the financial resources at our disposal, regardless of whether we are talking about the money from the national budget or external financing.

From this point of view, we have substantial support through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, especially since many of the reforms we undertook to carry out with the support of this European mechanism overlap with those necessary for the preparation of Romania’s accession to the OECD.

Whether we are talking about infrastructure, education, health, digital transformation, sustainable development, social reforms or good governance, I can say without a doubt that it involves absolutely necessary measures to provide people with quality public services and infrastructure and to support the economy at the same time.

As Prime Minister, my social-democratic political orientation does not prevent me from being aware of the importance of the good running of the economy for society, on the contrary. As I said before, the mandate of the government I lead is about reforms and the economy, more concretely, about how we make the economy produce more value and jobs, and the results to be seen concretely in the standard of Romanians’ living.

And as the current geo-strategic context inevitably implies a rethinking of energy policies by ensuring independence from Russian imports, both in the case of Romania and the other European countries, it is natural that at governmental level we grant this sector the importance it deserves, through concrete projects that we support in the direction of promoting alternative sources of energy and, equally, in the direction of the development of joint regional projects in the field of energy, a topic that, moreover, we addressed in August, in Athens, at the high-level meeting of the heads of state and government of South-Eastern Europe, and in the discussions that I and members of the Government had with European officials. This line also includes the steps we have taken since the beginning of the mandate, through which we managed to bring the new REPowerEU plan, focused on programs dedicated directly to consumers for the energy efficiency of homes and households, to the analysis of Brussels officials. It is about accessing more than 1.1 billion euros, which will make approximately 60,000 households able to be equipped with solar panels and batteries for energy storage. We also have projects started in partnership at the Doicesti Energy Complex, where we will implement new technologies in the non-conventional energy sector. All this will ensure our transition to more efficient and cleaner energy sources and, thus, the achievement of the assumed objectives of decarbonisation.

Whether we are talking about the energy sector, the transport infrastructure or the potential of digitalisation, we rely on investments, and this is the signal we send every time in discussions with the business environment.

The Business Forum of the Three Seas Initiative, an event that the Government hosted on the sidelines of the Three Seas Summit, held in early September in Bucharest, enjoyed a large participation of business people from the region and beyond, which outlines Romania’s profile as an option for investors.

CE: Romania joined the EU 16 years ago. How has Romania’s economy changed throughout this period? Do you support further enlargement of the EU?

Marcel Ciolacu: Romania has fully enjoyed the benefits of EU accession. My country has come a long way in terms of economic convergence, registering a significant increase in per capita GDP as a share of the euro area average (based on PPS), from 31.3% in 2005 to 77% in 2022. According to an analysis based on Statista data, Romania had the highest economic growth between 2000 and 2022 among EU states, of almost 800%.

Access to the single market was a facilitator for opening up the economy, an important economic engine and a determining factor in building a stronger, more balanced and fairer economy.

Our country has managed to build a regional profile of trust and political and economic stability, despite the complex geo-political evolutions in the region. All major international rating agencies - Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings - have assigned investment-grade sovereign ratings to the Romanian economy.

Also, Romania is fully taking its part of the in-depth transformation process, guided by the green and digital transition, as driving forces for economic growth. The current economic model that helped our country meet its development objectives so far, will focus on high-value-added activities, through the adoption of innovative technologies and production processes.

Romania’s medium-term macroeconomic perspectives are still marked by the persistence of uncertainty regarding the evolution in EU, the conflict in Ukraine and the necessary internal structural adjustments after a difficult period, in which multiple shocks affected the economy. Romania’s direct trade and financial links to Russia and Ukraine are limited, but the spillovers from the war have led to a lost momentum in growth.

On the longer term, much of Romania’s economic performance will be determined by the progress of projects financed under EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which could provide an extra boost to domestic demand. Romania’s total allocation under RRF is € 29.2 billion. The funding is used to carry out reforms and investments which will support the green and digital transitions, smart growth, health and resilience, and policies for the next generation, in line with EU’s vision to build a greener, more sustainable future.

Romania strongly believes in the transformative power of the EU enlargement, a strategic objective that implies a shared responsibility, both for our partners and for the EU. Moreover, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine reconfirmed how important it is to advance enlargement, building a space of security, development and common European values.

My country wholeheartedly supported the historic steps taken last year in the framework of this process - granting candidate status to Ukraine, Republic of Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina, as well as recognising a clear European perspective to Georgia.

The significant progress made by the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine on the road to European accession is all the more impressive in the current particularly challenging geopolitical context. We do hope that a decision to open accession negotiations with both candidate countries will be taken by the end of this year and we remain fully committed to support their efforts at political and technical level.

CE: A new energy market is being developed in the EU today. From what risks will it protect its members? Which countries are the main suppliers of energy to Romania?

Marcel Ciolacu: In the framework of the very high prices and volatility in electricity markets observed since September 2021 and of the escalation of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine, the Commission presented in October 2021 a toolbox of measures that the European Union and its Member States were able to use to address the immediate impact of high energy prices on households and businesses (including income support, tax breaks, gas savings and storage measures) and to strengthen resilience against future price shocks.

A new market design was proposed by European Commission and negotiated at the European Council level, aiming to set new fundamental principles for well-functioning, integrated electricity markets, which allow all resource providers and electricity customers non-discriminatory market access, enable the development of forward electricity markets to allow suppliers and consumers to hedge or protect themselves against the risk of future volatility in electricity prices, increase consumers’ empowerment, ensure competitiveness on the global market, enhance flexibility through demand response, energy storage and other non-fossil flexibility solutions, ensure energy efficiency, facilitate aggregation of distributed demand and supply, and, very important,  support long-term investments in renewable energy generation and enable consumers’ to make their energy bills less dependent from fluctuations of short-term electricity market prices, in particular fossil fuel prices, in the medium to long-term.

We all agreed at EU level that a faster deployment of renewable energy and clean flexible technologies is the most sustainable and cost-effective way of structurally reducing the demand for fossil fuels for electricity generation and for direct consumption through electrification and energy system integration. Thanks to their low operational costs, renewable sources can positively impact electricity prices across the Union and reduce direct consumption of fossil fuels.

The reform of the electricity market design should also increase the competitiveness of the Union’s industries by facilitating their possibilities to make the clean tech investments they require to meet their net zero transition paths. The energy transition in the Union needs to be supported by a strong clean technology manufacturing basis.

In terms of energy suppliers for Romania, our country imports only 10-11% its total annual electricity consumption, with spikes that may reach 20-25% during peak hours or during periods of time when electricity from renewables is not available.

I want to mention that during periods with good wind, Romania is a net electricity exporter. Given the important investments that are foreseen to be developed in the renewable and gas sector, we believe that in a few years our country will regain its position as an electricity exporter in the region and in EU.

CE: What does “green transition” mean for Romania and its citizens?

Marcel Ciolacu: It means an immense challenge and unprecedented opportunities at the same time. It means changing the paradigm of economic growth in a way which our generation has not experienced until now. More growth and cleaner lungs. It means green funds, innovative technologies and a new design of our job market.

Romania has chosen the hardest and most ambitious path, i.e. climate neutrality. This means that by 2050, we will have cut our greenhouse gas emissions by 99%, compared to 1990. It is an objective to which we have committed at the beginning of this year, when we presented to the European Commission the first draft of our Long Term Strategy for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Climate neutrality means profound structural transformations in crucial sectors, such as energy, economy, industry, transport, agriculture, buildings, heating and cooling. Our private sector is therefore key to achieving our goals and the Romanian Government is aiming for a more structured dialogue with the private sector, which could develop into solid partnerships for climate.

In 2022, the Romanian Government established an Interministerial Committee for Climate Change which brings to the table all major players who can drive forward the climate change agenda. In my team, I have appointed a state adviser for climate change and energy transition who also contributes to ensuring that the green transition happens in an integrated and just manner.

We have one of the lowest rates of emissions/capita in the EU. In 2021, Romania’s greenhouse gas emissions already decreased by 71% (the EU goal for 2030 is 55%).

We are privileged to have a pretty balanced energy mix. Romania ranks number 11 in the EU in terms of the renewable energy share in total consumption. In Central and Eastern Europe, Romania ranks 3rd after Croatia and Slovenia. This year, almost 60% of our electricity has been generated by renewable sources of energy. Until 2030, RO has committed to increase the share of renewables to 30,7%. It is focused mainly on wind, hydro, solar and fuels from biomass.

Romania is the second largest natural gas producer in the EU. Our onshore gas reserves are cca 100 billion cubic meters. The reserves in the Black Sea are estimated up to 84 billion cubic meters. The nuclear dimension of our energy mix is of equal importance (20%) with major projects for the future, including implementing the SMR technology.

Very important, the money is there to achieve the green transition. The level of EU funds towards green project is unprecedented. Until 2023, we have calculated up to 48 billion euro to be channelled via the Recovery and Resilience Plan, the Modernisation Fund, REPowerEU, the Just Transition Fund, the Social Fund for Climate, to name only a few.

The Government is making available public funding (EU and national) both to ensure energy efficiency in public and residential buildings as well as to create new capacities for the production of clean, green energy from solar, wind, geothermal and so on. Financial support in the form of grants for green energy production capacities are being offered both to private companies as well as, in some cases, to public authorities. Also, public funding is provided for electricity and gas infrastructure, for heating systems, for producing green hydrogen. In Romania, the general population receives national subsidies through the Environment Fund to purchase solar panels and produce their own green electric supply and even resell it into the grid. Additionally, through the RePowerEU, which is a new component under the NRRP, in the final steps of approval with the European Commission, households exposed to energy poverty, will receive subsidies to be able to produce solar energy through solar panels and batteries that allow for the energy to be stocked.

Our public funding tools, most of it fuelled through EU policies, such as the Cohesion Policy, allow us to give a green, environmentally - friendly direction to private and public investments and to public services. The money is conditional upon Romanian businesses and administrations complying with green standards in their processes and products.

The green transition is also about new alliances and partnerships such as the first submarine electricity cable in the Black Sea which will connect the electricity systems of the Caucasus and continental Europe (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary).

CE: What should be Romania’s focus in the post-pandemic period?

Marcel Ciolacu: The Covid pandemic has been a huge, disruptive, and painful challenge for all humanity, especially for vulnerable population and vulnerable economies. Romania was no exception.

However, at this point, I would point out that this crisis has provided the stimulus and means to adapt and reshape our economies, to invest in greener, smarter, more resilient businesses and public services. Also, in terms of focus, I will highlight that one of Romania’s major current country targets is to join the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and to fully align to economic, social, environmental, living and quality of life standards shared by the most developed economies of the world.

In the post pandemic context, as a member of the European Union, Romania benefits from significantly larger financial assistance package than what would have been envisaged before 2020. These are funds that we must spend wisely, targeted, in order to improve our economic competitiveness, our regional security profile and the living standards of our population.

Let’s talk numbers. The 29 billion Euro allocation for Romania under the Recovery and Resilience Mechanism (including the new RePowerEU component) adds up to the classic European funds available to Romania under the Cohesion Policy (31.5 Billion Euro) and under the Common Agricultural Policy (almost 16 Billion Euro).

We focus our investments on building transport infrastructure that connects our regions and is highly multimodal but also connects us with major European corridors (highways, railway, ports, roads), on green mobility and public transportation that is efficient, on a more robust, greener and digital economy (with a focus on agriculture, IT, production facilities), on more digital and effective public services (with a clear focus on our public education and public health systems).

Having said that, European funding is programmed to address some of our own systemic vulnerabilities such as a bureaucratic, overburdened, and slow public administration or high rates of poverty, a high rate of school leave, an aging population, as well as a growing deficit of skilled labour force. My own belief, my principle is that money cannot solve all problems nor generate the development Romania deserves. Ambitious, sometimes difficult reforms are necessary and are under preparation to allow all these tens of billions of Euros being injected into our economy to actually deliver that desired quality of doing business and of living in Romania.

CE: What changes does digitalization bring into the economic system?

Marcel Ciolacu: Firstly, digitalization creates a much more efficient relation between citizens and state institutions.

We are talking about fewer bureaucratic processes, less staying in line for obtaining different official papers, improved citizen communication and a better level of tax collection that will only increase by making applications available to them and eliminating the time spent queuing, filling in forms and going through procedures that slow them down.

Secondly, new digital technologies increase productivity. This contributes greatly to the development of new firms, offering opportunities and new and more varied workforce categories, with a strong economic impact. In addition, developing new firms increase competitiveness. Our mission is to support new firms to grow and to help them reach economic stability.

Thirdly, digitalization removes geographical barriers, leading to expanded market opportunities and new business models that create innovative ways to bring capital to the market, as well as value.

In conclusion, the impact of digitalization represents an era of transformation of the economic system, far-reaching, touching every aspect of business, commerce and consumer behavior. From increasing efficiency to developing new business models, digitalization brings tremendous opportunities for the national and global economic system.

CE: What importance is attached to the cooperation with the Caspian region states, especially with Azerbaijan?

Marcel Ciolacu: The war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by the EU and its partners on Russia had and will undoubtedly continue to have a lasting impact on the energy prices, thus inducing new dynamics to energy security worldwide.

In this context we would like to reaffirm Romania’s engagement in the development of the “Green Energy Corridor”, which will connect the Caspian Sea region with the Black Sea and the European Union, an initiative that was formalized in December 2022 in Bucharest where the Governments of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary signed the “Agreement on a strategic partnership in the field of green energy development and transmission”.

The latest meeting related to this initiative took place on July 26, also in Bucharest, where a Memorandum of Understanding on the establishment of a joint venture between the four countries was signed. On this occasion, the sides noted that the feasibility study of the initial stage of the project on the Black Sea would have been completed by the end 2023.

Romania is also interested in the Caspian natural gas volumes that could reach the Romanian market and, subsequently, the markets of Central and South-East Europe. The completion and the commercial operationalization of IGB could facilitate Romania’s access to the volumes of Azeri natural gas in the near future which could also be distributed further on to balance the energy security of our Eastern partners - Moldova and Ukraine.

We are ready to work with involved MS, and our Caspian partners to use the transport infrastructure offered by RO-BG Interconnector, BRUA gas pipeline and RO-HU Interconnector as an important viable link with the Central Europe in the possible future extension of the Southern Gas Corridor.

I conclude by mentioning that in the current extremely worrying and volatile security context, Azerbaijan has demonstrated that it is a reliable partner in the plan of ensuring stability in the region and strengthening European energy security.

I want to reconfirm Romania’s position regarding the solution of the problems in the South Caucasus region based on strict compliance with the principles of international law, including the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, as stipulated in the United Nations Charter. Thankyou.

Thankyoufortheinterview

The Karabakh region of the Azerbaijan Republic will be a budget ‘recipient’ in the nearest years, but in the medium term, Azerbaijan’s GDP will significantly grow driven by the integration of the liberated region. In less than a day, Baku established full control over the entire territory of the country after performing the anti-terrorist operation in the Karabakh economic region on September 20, 2023.

Earlier in 2020, the successful counter-offensive operation launched by the Azerbaijani army in Karabakh on September 27 and continued till November 8, resulted in the liberation of 5 cities, 3 settlements and over 215 villages within 44 days. Thus, two military operations put an end to a multi-year cycle of occupation, defiance of the United Nations resolutions on the return of lands, and devastation and desolation of 20% of Azerbaijan’s territory. Full restoration work is currently underway on the liberated lands, including construction of roads, settlements, airports, and telecommunication infrastructure. According to the envisaged investment program, expenditures on Karabakh and East Zangazur amounted to around 12 billion AZN by the end of 2023 (investments made in the year 2022 - 2.4 billion). Initial results have been achieved in a short period of time – Karabakh’s industry grew by 30%, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said.

From the state budget for 2024-2027, Azerbaijan plans to appropriate a total of 13 billion 682 million AZN (at the current rate - $9.8bl) for implementation of construction, restoration and rebuilding projects in Karabakh and East Zangazur.

  Oil sector

 At the meeting held with BP’s management staff on September 20, 2023, President Ilham Aliyev emphasized the essential role the Contract of the Century signed in 1994 played in laying a cornerstone of the country’s economic development during a hard and historic period of challenges that Azerbaijan went through.                    

September 20 is Azerbaijan Oilmen’s Day – the signing date of the international agreement known as the Contract of the Century under the leadership of the national leader of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev.  The project turned 29 in 2023. Since the launch of ACG development in 2001, the total amount of revenues gained from sale of profit oil produced from the block of fields has exceeded $160bln.

According to the data as of 2022, a total of 560.2 million tons of oil was produced since the commissioning of Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) fields.

Azerbaijan’s net profit from the development of Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) block of fields has totaled $168 billion since 2001.

The volume of investments made into the country’s economy between 1995 and 2021 totaled $280 billion. If Azerbaijan’s GDP was $2.417 billion in 1995, in 2021 it totaled $54.62 billion. Azerbaijan’s nominal GDP totaled 125 billion 5.5 million AZN in 2023. 

Karabakh’s full integration into Azerbaijan’s economy can raise the state’s GDP by 0.8%, this forecast was voiced by the representative of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Anatoliy Kolesnikov. Thus, all regained regions will be integrated successfully into the economy and social life of Azerbaijan.

ACG is the largest block of Azerbaijan’s oil fields and the world’s first-ever agreement that was signed twice, which underlines its long-standing significance up to the present day.

The rising oil demand promotes the growth of the investment attractiveness of Caspian fields.

Oil production from Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) block of fields totaled around 68 million barrels (9 million tons) in the first half of 2023.

In total, around 77 million barrels of oil (10 million tons) was produced from ACG block in the first half of 2022. Thus, oil production from this contract area decreased by 11.7% in January-June 2023.

According to BP, the size of expenditures on the development of ACG block decreased by 4.1% down to $978 million compared to the first half of 2022. From the mentioned sum, operational and capital expenditures totaled $232 million and $746 million respectively, the company said.

Average daily oil production from the block totaled 375, 000 barrels in the first half of 2023 (424,000 barrels in the first half of 2022).

In the meantime, production from Chirag platform averaged 23,000 barrels per day (25,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2022 – Interfax-Azerbaijan), Central Azeri – 98,000 b/d (108,000 b/d), West Azeri – 91,000 b/d (109,000 b/d), East Azeri – 61,000 b/d (62,000 b/d), Deepwater Guneshli – 67,000 b/d (78,000 b/d), and West Chirag – 35,000 b/d (42,000 b/d).

 Transition stage

It seems like data on production from conventional sources will soon be replaced with other data on generation and export of renewable energy – solar, wind, and hydro power. On December 17, 2022, the governments of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary signed an agreement on a strategic partnership in the field of green energy development and transmission. One of the important points of the agreement was the Black Sea submarine cable project. Once implemented, a 1,195km long cable (1,100km –subwater, 95km – onshore) will be linked to Romania, which will allow South Caucasus states and Romania to benefit from broad opportunities of electricity export and trade on basis of hourly market prices.

“At this stage, we have already conducted preliminary technical studies and they give us the basis for the successful implementation of the project”, Vice Prime Minister, Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Levan Davitashvili said. “High-level coordination between countries is very important for the successful implementation of the project”, the Vice Prime Minister said.

According to Levan Davitashvili, the feasibility of the project has actually been confirmed, and soon there will be a complete sketch of how the Black Sea submarine cable project should be implemented, which will create the means of supplying renewable energies from Georgia and the South Caucasus in general to the European Union. 

Shah Deniz gas export rose from 2022’s 19 bcm to 24 bcm in 2023, according to the data mentioned by President of Azerbaijan in his speech. “This volume will keep growing further.  With respect to our potential, here are just a couple of figures for your attention. Twenty-seven gigawatts of wind and solar onshore, 10 gigawatts of wind and solar energy in the territories liberated during the Patriotic War of 2020, and 157 gigawatts of wind energy in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea - almost 200 gigawatts of potential. Of course, we need to have enough export routes. And, of course, to implement all these projects in stages... In January 2023, Masdar and SOCAR signed an agreement on development of wind and solar power plants with the capacity of 4GW in Azerbaijan. It is only a short-term project, and mid-term projects will increase the volume to 10 gigawatts. And this is absolutely doable. We have a road map for both projects. This project alone, in cooperation with MASDAR, will transform Azerbaijan into a significant source of green energy exports”.

“Today, Azerbaijan not only satisfies all its needs with energy but also exports crude oil, oil products, natural gas, petrochemicals, and electricity. Our program with respect to renewables has an entirely different agenda. Firstly, this sector has enormous potential. Secondly, it will help us to diversify our export and, of course, create a new ecologically-friendly sector of our economy”, President of Azerbaijan said.

“Important MoUs and agreements signed by Azerbaijan with international energy companies will allow us to produce up to 22 gigawatts of wind and solar energy. And, of course, for that purpose, we need export routes, as I already mentioned.  On the 17th of December, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Hungary and Romania signed an agreement to build a Black Sea sea-belt electric cable from the Black Sea coast of Georgia to the Black Sea coast of Romania. And this agreement was witnessed by President of the European Commission.  Thus, we plan to build a cable that will transport green energy from Azerbaijan at the level of four gigawatts. But that will not be enough. That is only what has already been agreed upon. Our plans are much broader. The investment climate in Azerbaijan is very positive, and we accumulated considerable investments in the oil and gas sector. But now our target is renewables. So, in other words, we have great plans. And I am sure that we will succeed”, the head of state of Azerbaijan noted.

COP29

Amid global challenges posed by climate change, this year’s regular COP summit - the 29th session of Conference of the Parties (COP 29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - will be hosted in Azerbaijan. The decision was made at the plenary session of COP28 that took place in Dubai on December 11, 2023. So far, Azerbaijan has hosted lots of international events and done it worthily. However, as President Ilham Aliyev said, COP29 is beyond all comparison with the events which have been organized thus far. Baku will become the center of the world for two weeks and host about 70,000-80,000 foreign visitors. Thus, 30 years after the signing of the Contract of the Century (Azeri-Chirag-Deepwater Gunashli PSA, dated September 20, 1994), Baku will become a decision-making center in the field of renewable energy. Perhaps, shaped here will be the future of the world oil-gas industry which also took start with the drilling of the first oil well close to Bibi Heybat settlement in the 19th century.

In line with this mission, 2024 was declared Green World Solidarity Year in accordance with the Azerbaijan Republic President Ilham Aliyev’s order. “Concurrently, Azerbaijan will underscore its standing as an oil and gas nation, emphasizing to the global community our commitment to green energy initiatives. The focal points of our current energy policy revolve around the development of green energy and the facilitation of its transport to global markets. This commitment reflects a tangible reality, and the international community will once again witness it”, President Ilham Aliyev said at the meeting regarding the hosting of COP29 in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan is one of the countries with the high potential of renewable energy sources. According to the data of Ministry of Energy, the technical potential of the country’s onshore renewable energy sources makes 135 GW and offshore is 157 GW. The economic potential of renewable sources of energy is 27GW, including wind energy - 3,000 MW, solar energy -23,000 MW, and the bioenergy potential – 380 MW. The potential of mountain streams is estimated at 520 MW.

Besides, President of the Azerbaijan Republic announced about creation of the green energy zone within the liberated territories of the Republic, and the action plan for 2022-2026 was approved. The plan is to make those territories a net zero-emission zone by 2050.

Temperature rise on Earth exceeds

projections for 2100

The hottest year in human history. Global warming is continuing firmly in 2024 after 2023, the hottest year ever recorded.

Meteorologists have confirmed what they forecasted back in the summer – the year 2023 was officially confirmed as the warmest year on record since 1850, BBC writes. Average annual temperature went 1.48°C above pre-industrial level and the mankind reached one of the two points mentioned in the Paris agreement, beyond which scientists predict climate change-driven catastrophic consequences for life on Earth. 

On January 9, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) researchers published an annual climate survey which says the year 2023 has surpassed the previous record of 2016 by a wide margin.

“2023 marks the first time on record that every day within a year has exceeded 1°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level for that time of year. Close to 50% of days were more than 1.5°C warmer than the 1850-1900 level, and two days in November were, for the first time, more than 2°C warmer”, says the survey.

As is known, in 2015, 197 nations came together to sign the Paris Climate Agreement and agreed to pursue all necessary efforts to cap the rise in average global temperatures at well below 1.5-2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

As stated by scientists, to reach that goal, all the world countries must fully stop using fossil fuel by the year 2050, redirecting their economies to other tracks. 

To reach the goals of the Paris agreement is becoming increasingly difficult. The last nine years have been the hottest on record, with a large margin.

“2023 was an “exceptional year, with climate records tumbling like dominoes. Temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years”, commented one of the officials of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Samantha Burgess.

Warm ocean

The Copernicus data says that the last year’s global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained persistently and unusually high in most ocean basins, and in particular in the North Atlantic, and played an important role in the record-breaking global SSTs.

The ocean plays a major role for world climate as it covers more than 70% of Earth’s surface and absorbed 90% of the warming that has occurred in recent decades. At a depth of several tens of meters there is as much heat as in the Earth’s whole atmosphere. 

The warmer the ocean gets, the lower becomes its ability to absorb energy and sooth temperatures rise on the planet as a whole. There is no good news here: according to NASA, the last 10 years were the ocean’s warmest decade since at least the 1800s.

Each month between June and December 2023 was warmer than any other relevant month of previous years. The New Year has offered no relief.

“December 2023 was the hottest December on record. It is likely that the temperature over the 12 months ending in January or February will surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial level”, NASA warns.

How is the wind energy sector doing

On January 3, bp and the Norwegian oil giant Equinor announced that they would halt developing a part of their wind farm project off the coast of New York. Inflation and high interest rates caused soaring costs. In 2023, both companies recorded $840 (about 120 billion yen) million-worth impairment losses due to the state’s offshore wind industry development.

A decision to cancel Empire Wind 2 project was made. It is one of three offshore wind farm projects that both companies implement jointly off the state coast. Its generative capacity is expected at 1.26 million KW upon commissioning.

The decision recognizes commercial conditions driven by inflation, high interest rates and supply chain disruptions. As the result, development costs rose higher than expected. In the USA, offshore wind power companies started recording losses one after another in the second half of 2023.

European energy giants Orsted, Equinor and BP announced about general losses, worth around 740 billion yen, on projects in the USA. Inflation, high interest rates and supply chain disruptions caused the rise of operating costs. BP’s executive said the U.S. offshore wind industry is “fundamentally broken”, which presents an obstacle for Biden’s administration aspiring to stimulate the development of renewable energy sources.

Oil-gas asset impairments

On January 8, Shell flagged that it expects impairment charges of up to $4.5 billion (around 650 billion yen) for the period between October and December 2023, mainly driven by the assets linked to its Singapore refining and chemicals hub. It is reported that Shell is looking to sell its Singapore-based assets amid the rising headwinds toward fossil fuels.

This is stated in the fourth quarter 2023 outlook, published on the same day. Shell’s crude oil refining capacity in Singapore totals 230,700 tons per day.

On January 4, the US oil giant Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) warned of a $2.5 billion writedown of its assets in California that it is going to record in the fourth quarter (Q4) earnings of 2023.

Operating income is anticipated at around $8.9bn, i.e. 30% below the $12.7 bn net profit for the same period of the previous year, and can decrease by 3% compared to the previous period.

Oil-gas assets in the south coast of California are expected to incur a $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion impairment charge because of the continuing challenges in the state regulatory environment.

The 4Q operating profit is expected to be by $2.2bn lower compared to the previous quarter indicator because of the decline of oil prices and decrease of fuel profitability. Meanwhile, it is expected that the price growth for natural gas will raise operating profits by around $600bn.

Contradictions 

In fact, the lack of clearly defined scientific, technical, commercial and legal regulations spelling out the concept of environmentally sound production, as well as the absence of a single and coherent program of actions helping to focus business chains on global clean energy projects, lead to contradictions and at times to mutually opposing actions of certain market entities in the face of energy shortage as the concept of economy’s ‘energy security’ begins prevailing over its environmental component.

Alok Sharma, President of the Cop26 Glasgow climate summit in 2021, criticized the UK government, saying it was “not serious” about meeting its international climate commitments.

The oil-gas bill which will allow for an annual licensing regime for oil and gas exploration contracts is debated by the parliament deputies. As he stated, the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill, the central element of the King’s last year speech, “aims to boost the development of new oil and gas fields”.

Sharma’s comments came after another former minister Chris Skidmore resigned because of the bill.

Sharma told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I will not be voting for this bill. The Bill is a “total distraction” and “a smoke and mirrors Bill which frankly changes nothing”.

He added: “What this bill does do is reinforce that unfortunate perception about the UK rowing back from climate action.”

 “We saw this last autumn with the chopping and changing of some policies and actually not being serious about our international commitments”. Late in 2023,  at Cop28 the UK government signed up to transition away from fossil fuels.

“This bill is actually about doubling down on new oil and gas licenses. It is actually the opposite of what we agreed to do internationally, so I won’t be supporting it.”

Confronted with the situation of “holding a tit (the oil-gas industry) in the hand, leaving a crane (the renewable energy sector) soaring in the sky”, Great Britain chooses to continue developing its offshore upstream sector.

Manipulation

In the meantime, oil prices drifted lower as Saudi Arabia – one of the major world oil producers – announced its decision to cut February prices for all grades of crude it is selling to buyers in all regions, including Asia, Northwestern Europe, the Mediterranean and North America.

In February, Saudi Arabia will cut prices for all crude oil grades sold to all the regions, public company Saudi Aramco said. In particular, official selling prices (OSP) for crude it is selling to Asian customers will be decreased by $2 per barrel, and as a result, Arab Light crude, the major grade of crude supplied to Asia, will cost $1.5 cheaper than the Oman/Dubai basket. It has been the minimum spread since November 2021.

The discount is applicable to supplies to Northwestern Europe, the Mediterranean and North America. Crude prices fell by 4% on this news.

According to Reuters, the price cut, the biggest in 13 months, is in line with market expectations, as refiners called for competitive prices from Saudi Arabia comparing to crude oil supplied from other Middle Eastern producers. Global crude prices declined in 2023 for the first time since 2020, the Agency emphasizes.  

One can only guess the way such steps will affect the prospects of the oil-gas industry (oil refining, petrochemistry) and green energy transition.

Oil-gas output growth

International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast on world oil output for the year 2023:  now, it expects world output to lift by 1.8 mb/d to 101.9 mb/d, says the monthly report of the agency. Last month, the agency forecasted oil production to increase by 1.8 million b/d to 101.8 million b/d for the year 2023. 

“General growth of oil production by 1.8 mb/d will increase world supply to 101.9 mb/d in 2023, the highest level in history”, says the December report.

According to the agency, such indicators were driven by the growth of production in the USA, Brazil and Iran, which surpassed the early predictions. 

For the year 2024, IEA sees a sharp production increase - by 1.2 mb/d, up to a new record level of 103.2 mb/d - at the expense of non-OPEC+ producers.

The Board of Directors of Gazprom PJSC, a potentially leading world gas producer, notes that the recovery of world demand for energy resources was observed during 2023. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors, prevailing of politically-driven decisions in the energy policy of a number of countries, high energy security risks and price volatility continue impacting negatively on the world energy sector.

The most striking crisis phenomena occurred in the European gas market where artificial destruction of demand for natural gas has been taking place for the first time in world energy history. According to preliminary estimates, gas consumption in far-off European countries fell by 34 bcm within 11 months of 2023 and remains on the level of 1996. Unlike 2022, gas production in this region started falling again. According to the results of 11 months of 2023, the output fell by 18 bcm, including production by a major producer (Norway) – by 9 bcm. Thus, energy security risks are rising considerably in the European countries, especially in winter months.

The substantial growth for gas demand has been registered this year in the Asia-Pacific region. China was the engine of the gas consumption growth. Global investments in exploration and production of hydrocarbons in 2023 amounted to 124% of the 2020 level. The company’s board of directors also noted that fossil fuels will remain the basis of the global energy mix in the long term, and the share of natural gas in the global energy mix will keep growing.

Amid the decline of Russian pipeline gas supplies, a surge in demand for LNG has occurred in the EU. By 2026, LNG producers will have commissioned new liquefaction capacities with the volume of over 100 mtpa, says the annual report of the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL). Total capacities of LNG plants will rise by 21% to over 576.5 mtpa.

Liquefaction trains with a total capacity of 14.9 mtpa were commissioned in 2022. Total capacity of LNG plants across the world rose by 3% to 476.5 mtpa. General LNG supplies around the world increased by 4.5% up to 389.2 ml tons in 2022, says the report of GIIGNL.

According to GIIGNL report, LNG import to Europe grew by 59.5% up to 119.7 ml tons in 2022 that led to the decline of supplies to other regions. Import to Asia dropped by 7.6% down to 251.9 ml tons, North and South America – by 39.6% down to 10.9 ml tons. As the result, Asia’s share in the global import fell from 73% to 65%, and Europe’s share grew from 20% to 31%.

Amid this, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries encountered gas shortage due to the lack of pipeline gas imports, decrease of its domestic production and world price growth on LNG, says the report. The delay in launch of LNG supply to the Philippines and Vietnam was another reason for price growth. LNG supply to China fell by 20%, from 79.3 mln down to 63.3 mln tons. 

High natural gas prices driven by political risks, and global energy security risks will slow down the growth of developing economies, raise inflation in the developed markets, limiting the expansion of global production and supply chains of high-value added goods, as well as slowing down production and global economic growth. This, in turn, increases risks and negatively impacts on investments in environmentally-clean projects, and creates a vicious circle of further growth of CO2 emissions, industrial pollution and rise of global temperature which have already exceeded projections made earlier by 2100.

 На фоне глобальных проблем, связанных с изменением климата, в этом году Азербайджан станет хозяином очередного Саммита COP29 - в Азербайджане пройдет 29-я сессия Конференции сторон Рамочной конвенции ООН об изменении климата – COP29. Решение об этом было принято на пленарном заседании COP28, состоявшемся в Дубае 11 декабря 2023 года. До сих пор Азербайджан принимал множество международных мероприятий и достойно проводил их. Однако, как сказал Президент Ильхам Алиев, COP29 не идет ни в какое сравнение с мероприятиями, организованными до сих пор.

В течение двух недель Баку станет центром мира и примет около 70-80 тысяч иностранных гостей. Таким образом спустя 30 лет после подписания (20 сентября 1994 года контракта века по месторождениям “Азери”, Чыраг”, “глубоководная часть “Гюнешли”), Баку станет центром принятия решений в сфере возобновляемой энергетики. Вероятно, здесь  решится судьба мировой нефтегазовой отрасли, начало которой также было положено бурением первой нефтяной скважины близ местечка Биби-Эйбат в 19 веке.

В соответствии с этой миссией Распоряжением Президента Азербайджанской Республики Ильхама Алиева 2024 год был объявлен в Азербайджане «Годом солидарности во имя зеленого мира».

«Азербайджан как нефтегазовая страна проявит себя и в этой сфере, и каждый в мире еще раз увидит, что наша повестка дня связана с «зеленой» энергией. Создание «зеленых» видов энергии и транспортировка «зеленой» энергии на мировые рынки в настоящее время являются приоритетом нашей энергетической политики. Такова реальность, и весь мир еще раз увидит это», – подчеркнул Президент Ильхам Алиев на состоявшемся совещании в связи с проведением в стране COP29.

Азербайджан является одной из стран с высоким потенциалом возобновляемых источников энергии. Сог­ласно данным Министерства энергетики, технический потенциал возобновляемых источников энергии страны составляет 135 ГВт на суше и 157 ГВт на море. Экономический потенциал возобновляемых источников энергии составляет 27 ГВт, в том числе энергии ветра – три тысячи мегаватт, солнечной энергии – 23 тысячи мегаватт, биоэнергетический потенциал – 380 мегаватт. Потенциал горных рек оценивается в объеме 520 мегаватт

Кроме того, Президент Азербайджанской Республики объявил о создании зоны «зеленой» энергии на освобожденных от оккупации территориях Азербайджанской Республики, был утвержден план действий на 2022-2026 годы. К 2050 году планируется превратить эти территории в зону «чистых нулевых выбросов».

Рост температуры на Земле  превысил

планируемый уровень 2100 года

Самый жаркий год в истории. Глобальное потепление уверенно продолжается в 2024 году после рекордного 2023-го.

Метеорологи подтвердили то, о чем догадывались еще летом - 2023 год официально стал самым жарким за всю историю наблюдений с 1850 года, пишет BBC. Среднегодовая температура на 1,48°C превысила доиндустриальный уровень, и человечество оказалось на первом из двух упомянутых в Парижском соглашении рубежей, за которыми ученые предрекают катастрофические последствия изменения климата для жизни на земле.

Исследователи из климатического центра Коперника при Евросоюзе опубликовали во вторник - 9 января ежегодный климатический обзор, в котором говорится, что 2023 год побил предыдущий рекорд 2016 года с большим отрывом.

«В 2023 году впервые за всю историю наблюдений каждый день в течение года превышал на 1°C доиндустриальный уровень 1850–1900 годов. Практически каждый второй день был более чем на 1,5°C теплее, чем в 1850–1900 годах, а два дня в ноябре впервые пробили рубеж в 2°C», -  говорится в обзоре.

Как известно, в  2015 году 197 стран мира подписали Парижское климатическое соглашение, договорившись принять все необходимые меры, чтобы к 2100 году средние температуры на планете не превысили доиндустриальные значения на 1,5-2°C.

Как в один голос уверяют ученые, для этого все страны мира должны полностью отказаться от использования ископаемого топлива, переведя экономику на другие рельсы, не позже 2050 года.

Достичь целей Парижского соглашения всё труднее. Последние девять лет оказались самыми жаркими в истории, причем с серьезным отрывом.

«2023 выдался исключительным годом. Климатичес­кие рекорды падали один за другим. Судя по всему, он оказался самым теплым за последние 100 тысяч лет», - прокомментировала отчет одна из руководителей цент­ра Коперника Саманта Берджес.

Теплый океан

Согласно данным центра Коперника, средняя глобальная температура поверхности моря в прошлом году оставалась устойчиво и необычно высокой в большинстве океанических бассейнов, особенно в Северной Атлантике, что сыграло важную роль в повышении глобальных температур в целом.

Океан имеет ключевое значение для климата, пос­кольку покрывает более 70% поверхности Земли и абсорбирует 90% глобального потепления последних десятилетий. На глубине всего несколько десятков метров хранится столько же тепла, сколько во всей атмосфере Земли.

Чем теплее океан, тем ниже его способность поглощать энергию и сглаживать повышение температур на планете в целом. И тут нет хороших новостей: по данным американского НАСА, всё последнее десятилетие температура воды была рекордной по меньшей мере за 200 лет.

С июня по декабрь 2023 года каждый месяц был теп­лее, чем соответствующий месяц в любом из предыдущих годов. Новый год не принес облегчения.

«Декабрь 2023 года стал самым теплым за всю историю наблюдений в мире. Вполне вероятно, что температура за 12 месяцев, заканчивающихся в январе или феврале 2024 года, превысит доиндустриальный уровень на 1,5°C», — предупреждают они.

Что с ветроэнергетикой

Британская компания BP и норвежский нефтяной гигант Equinor объявили 3-го января, что они приостановят часть своего морского ветроэнергетического проекта у побережья Нью-Йорка, США. Издержки бизнеса увеличились из-за инфляции и высоких процентных ставок. Обе компании зафиксировали убытки от обесценения на общую сумму 840 миллионов долларов (около 120 миллиардов иен) в 2023 году в связи с развитием морской ветроэнергетики у побережья штата.

Было принято решение отменить проект «Империя Ветра 2». Это один из трех морских ветроэнергетичес­ких проектов, которые две компании реализуют у побережья штата. Ожидается, что при вводе в эксплуатацию его мощность составит 1,26 миллиона киловатт.

Причиной этого решения является ухудшение деловой среды. Инфляция, высокие процентные ставки и сбои в цепочках поставок в совокупности привели к тому, что затраты на разработку выросли выше, чем ожидалось. В США оффшорные ветроэнергетические компании начали один за другим фиксировать убытки во второй половине 2023 года.

 Европейские энергетические гиганты Orsted, Equinor и BP объявили об общих убытках примерно в 740 миллиардов иен по проектам в США. Инфляция, высокие процентные ставки и сбои в цепочках поставок привели к увеличению операционных расходов. 1-го числа руководитель компании BP заявил, что оффшорная ветро­энергетика США «рушится», что является препятствием для администрации Байдена, стремящейся стимулировать развитие возобновляемых источников энергии.

Обесценивание нефтегазовых активов

Shell объявила 8-го января, что ожидает зарегистрировать убыток от обесценивания в размере до $4,5 млрд (приблизительно 650 млрд иен) в период с октября по декабрь 2023 года. Нефтеперерабатывающие и химические заводы компании, расположенные в основном в Сингапуре, подвержены убыткам от обесценивания. Сообщается, что Shell рассматривает возможность продажи своих активов в Сингапуре на фоне растущих препятствий в отношении ископаемого топлива.

Об этом говорится в прогнозе на октябрь-декабрь 2023 года, опубликованном в тот же день. Мощность Shell по переработке сырой нефти в Сингапуре составляет 230 700 тонн в день.

Американский нефтяной гигант Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) предупредил 4 января, что в своих финансовых результатах за четвертый квартал 2023 года он зафиксирует убыток от обесценивания активов в Калифорнии в размере около $2,5 млрд.

Операционная прибыль составит около $8,9 млрд, что на 30% ниже, чем $12,7 млрд чистой прибыли за тот же период прошлого года, и может снизиться на 3% по сравнению с предыдущим периодом.

Ожидается, что нефтегазовые активы на южном побережье Калифорнии понесут убытки от обесценивания в размере от 2,4 до 2,6 миллиардов долларов из-за «пос­тоянных проблем в нормативно-правовой базе штата».

Ожидается, что операционная прибыль в четвертом квартале будет ниже примерно на 2,2 миллиарда долларов по сравнению с предыдущим кварталом из-за падения цен на сырую нефть и сокращения рентабельности топлива. Между тем, ожидается, что рост цен на природный газ увеличит операционную прибыль примерно на 600 миллионов долларов.

Противоречия

На самом деле отсутствие четко определенных научных, технических, коммерческих и юридических  норм, определяющих понятие экологически чистой добычи, а также единой, скоординированной программы действий, позволяющей сосредоточить цепочки бизнеса на глобальных энергетически чистых проектах, приводит к противоречиям и порой взаимоисключающим действиям отдельных субъектов рынка перед лицом дефицита самой энергии, когда понятие “энергетическая безопасность” экономики начинает перевешивать ее экологичес­кую составляющую. 

Так Алок Шарма, который был президентом климатического саммита COP26 в Глазго в 2021 году, обвинил британское правительство в том, что оно «несерьезно» относится к своим международным климатическим обязательствам.

Законопроект о нефти и газе, который позволит установить ежегодный режим лицензирования для контрактов на разведку нефти и газа обсуждается депутатами. Законопроект о лицензировании морской добычи нефти, центральный элемент речи короля в прошлом году, как он утверждал, “явно способствует нефтегазодобыче”.

Комментарии Шармы прозвучали после того, как другой бывший министр, Крис Скидмор, подал в отставку из-за законопроекта.

Шарма заявил в программе «Сегодня» BBC Radio 4: «Я не буду голосовать за этот законопроект, и в том виде, в котором он сейчас составлен, этот законопроект полностью отвлекает внимание. На самом деле это законопроект о дыме и зеркалах, который, откровенно говоря, ничего не меняет.

Он добавил: «Этот законопроект действительно укреп­ляет это печальное представление о том, что Великобритания отказывается от борьбы с изменением климата».

«Мы видели это прошлой осенью, когда некоторые программы были сокращены и изменены, а на самом деле мы несерьезно относились к нашим международным обязательствам”. В конце 2023-го года на COP28 правительство Великобритании подписало соглашение об отказе от ископаемого топлива. 

«На самом деле этот законопроект касается удвоения количества новых лицензий на добычу нефти и газа. Это противоположно тому, что мы договорились делать на международном уровне, поэтому я не буду это поддерживать».

Оказавшись в ситуации “удержать синицу (нефтегазовую отрасль) в руках, оставляя журавля (возобновляемую энергетику) свободно парить в небе”, Великобритания выбирает продолжение развития своего офшорного upstream.

Рынки

В то же время один из ведущих мировых производителей нефти - Саудовская Аравия  сообщила о снижении   цены на все сорта нефти в феврале.

Коснется это покупателей во всех регионах, включая Азию, северо-западную Европу, Средиземноморье и Северную Америку. На этом фоне на торгах цены на нефть пошли вниз.

Саудовская Аравия в феврале понизит цены на все сорта нефти для всех регионов, сообщила госкомпания Saudi Aramco. В частности, цены для азиатских покупателей будут уменьшены на 2 доллара за баррель, и в результате Arab Light - основной сорт нефти, поставляемый в Азию, - будет стоить на 1,5 доллара меньше, чем корзина нефти Омана и Дубая. Это минимальный спред с ноября 2021 года.

Скидка распространяется на поставки в северо-западную Европу, Средиземноморье и Северную Америку. На этой новости цены на нефть обвалились на 4%.

Reuters сообщает, что крупнейшее за 13 месяцев снижение цен Saudi Aramco в целом соответствует ожиданиям рынка, так как нефтеперерабатывающие компании требовали от Саудовской Аравии конкурентоспособных цен по сравнению с нефтью, поставляемой другими ближневосточными производителями. Мировые цены на нефть снизились в 2023 году впервые с 2020 года, подчеркивает агентство.

Как такие шаги отразятся на перспективах нефтегазовой отрасли (нефтепереработки, нефтехимии)  и перспективах перехода на возобновляемые источники, остается только догадываться.

Рост добычи нефти и газа

Международное энергетическое агентство (МЭА) повысило прогноз по мировой добыче нефти на 2023 год: теперь ожидает ее увеличения на 1,8 миллиона баррелей в сутки - до рекордных 101,9 миллиона баррелей в сутки, следует из ежемесячного доклада агентства. В прошлом месяце агентство прогнозировало рост добычи нефти в 2023 году на 1,7 миллиона баррелей в сутки - до 101,8 миллиона баррелей в сутки.

“Общий рост добычи нефти на 1,8 миллиона баррелей в сутки увеличит мировое предложение в 2023 году до 101,9 миллиона баррелей в сутки, это самый высокий уровень за всю историю”, - говорится в декабрьском докладе.

По мнению агентства, на такие показатели повлиял рост добычи в США, Бразилии и Иране, который превзошел ранние прогнозы.

В 2024 году МЭА прогнозирует резкий рост добычи за счет стран-производителей, не входящих в ОПЕК+, - на 1,2 миллиона баррелей в сутки, до “нового рекордного уровня” в 103,2 миллиона баррелей в сутки.

Совет директоров ПАО «Газпром» - потенциально ведущий мировой производитель газа отмечает, что в течение 2023 года в мире наблюдалось восстановление спроса на энергоресурсы. При этом геополитические факторы, преобладание политически мотивированных решений в энергополитике ряда стран, высокие риски энергетической безопасности и ценовая волатильность продолжают оказывать негативное влияние на мировую энергетику.

Наиболее ярко кризисные явления проявились на европейском газовом рынке, где впервые в истории мировой энергетики происходит искусственное разрушение спроса на природный газ. По предварительным оценкам, за 11 месяцев 2023 года потребление газа в странах европейского дальнего зарубежья снизилось на 34 млрд куб. м и находится на уровне 1996 года. При этом, в отличие от 2022 года, добыча газа в этом регионе вновь перешла в фазу падения. По итогам 11 месяцев 2023 года она снизилась на 18 млрд куб. м, в том числе, у основного производителя - Норвегии - на 9 млрд куб. м. Таким образом, в европейских странах значительно повышаются риски энергетической безопасности, особенно в зимние месяцы.

Существенный рост спроса на газ в текущем году был зафиксирован в странах Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона. Локомотивом роста потребления газа стал Китай.   Мировые инвестиции в разведку и добычу углеводородов в 2023 году составили 124% к уровню 2020 года. На заседании Совета директоров Газпром отмечено, что ископаемые виды топлива останутся основой мирового энергетического баланса в долгосрочной перспективе, роль природного газа в мировом энергобалансе продолжит расти.

При этом на фоне падения поставок российского трубопроводного газа в ЕС произошел скачок спроса на СПГ.  Производители сжиженного природного газа (СПГ) к 2026 г. введут в эксплуатацию новые мощности по сжижению объемом более 100 млн т в год, говорится в ежегодном обзоре Международной группы импортеров СПГ (GIIGNL). Суммарные мощности СПГ-заводов вырастут на 21% более чем до 576,5 млн т в год.

В 2022 г. были запущены линии по сжижению общим объемом 14,9 млн т в год. Суммарная мощность СПГ-заводов в мире выросла на 3% до 476,5 млн т в год. Общие поставки СПГ в 2022 г. в мире увеличились на 4,5% до 389,2 млн т, говорится в докладе GIIGNL.

Импорт СПГ в Европу, согласно данным GIIGNL, в 2022 г. увеличился на 59,5% до 119,7 млн т, что привело к снижению поставок в другие регионы. Импорт в Азию снизился на 7,6% до 251,9 млн т, в Северную и Южную Америку – на 39,6% до 10,9 млн т. В результате доля Азии в мировом импорте снизилась с 73 до 65%, а доля Европы выросла с 20 до 31%.

Пакистан и Бангладеш и другие страны на этом фоне столкнулись с дефицитом газа ввиду отсутствия импорта трубопроводного газа, сокращения его внутреннего производства и роста мировых цен на СПГ, отмечается в обзоре. Другим последствием роста цен стала отсрочка начала пос­тавок СПГ на Филиппины и во Вьетнам. Поставки СПГ в Китай снизились на 20% с 79,3 млн до 63,3 млн т.

Высокие цены на газ, мотивированные политическими рисками,  риски глобальной энергетической безопасности, будут тормозить рост развивающихся экономик, увеличивать инфляцию на развитых рынках, ограничивая расширение глобальных цепочек производства и поставок товаров высокой добавленной стоимости, притормаживая производство и мировой экономический рост. Что, в свою очередь увеличивает риски и негативно отражается на инвестировании экологически чистых проектов,  создавая замкнутый круг дальнейшего роста выбросов углекислого газа, индустриального загрязнения окружающей среды и роста температуры глобального потепления, которые уже превысили запланированный ранее уровень 2100 года.

На мировых рынках цены на нефть выросли примерно на 4 процента на прошлой неделе, компенсируя потери предыдущей недели, благодаря оценкам роста спроса  на «черное золото».

На лондонском рынке цена барреля на прошлой неделе выросла на 4 процента, до $85,34, а на американском рынке цена барреля выросла на 3,9 процента, до $81,04.

Прорыв выше 85 долларов на лондонском рынке впервые с ноября прошлого года последовал за прогнозами Международного энергетического агентства (МЭА) о том, что мировой спрос на нефть вырастет на 1,7 миллиона баррелей в день в первом квартале.

Увеличение оценок спроса связано с улучшением экономических перспектив в США и увеличением спроса на топливо для судов, следующих по более длинному маршруту вокруг мыса Доброй Надежды. МЭА также повысило оценку роста спроса за весь год на 110 000 баррелей в день до 1,3 миллиона баррелей в день. Однако рост спроса  будет  более медленным чем в 2023 году  из-за замедления мировой экономики

В 2024 году весна придет в Азербайджан 20 марта в 07:06. Именно в это время наступит весеннее равноденствие – Солнце, двигаясь по эклиптике, переместится из Южного полушария в Северное, сообщает пресс-служба обсерватории.

Весна в Северном полушарии продлится до 21 июня и в 00:50 сменится летом. В это время ось вращения Земли составляет наименьший угол с направлением на Солнце, находящемся на максимальной высоте (73⁰,1) над горизонтом в полдень этого дня - это самый длинный день и самая короткая ночь. Продолжительность дня составит 15 часов 3 минуты 23 секунды, ночи - 8 часов 56 минут 37 секунд.

Как передает Azerbaycan 24, об этом заявил находившийся вчера в Баку  Генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг в ходе совместной пресс-конференции с президентом Азербайджана Ильхамом Алиевым.
COP29, который пройдет в Баку в этом году, важен для всех, кто обеспокоен изменением климата, что также относится к вопросам безопасности.
Как передает корреспондент Report, сказал  Й. Столтенберг 
“В этом году Азербайджан примет у себя COP29. На данный момент проблемы из-за климатических изменений можно наблюдать во всем мире”,- сказал он, подчеркнув значимость проведения данного мероприятия.

Как передает Azerbaycan 24, об этом Report сообщили в Госкомстате.

Было отмечено, что в нефтегазовом секторе экономики добавленная стоимость снизилась на 0,7%, а в ненефтегазовом – выросла на 10,1%.

39,9% производства ВВП приходится на промышленность, 9,9% – на торговлю, ремонт транспортных средств, 7% – на транспорт и складское хозяйство, 5,5% – на строительство, 2,7% – на сельское хозяйство, лесное хозяйство и рыболовство, 2,2% – на размещение туристов и общественное питание, 1,7% – на сферы информации и связи, 19,8% на долю других отраслей, 11,3% – на чистые налоги на продукцию и импорт.