The United Nations Climate Change Conference will take place from November 10 to 21 in Belém, a city with a population of nearly 1.4 million, located on the edge of the Amazon rainforest on the right bank of the Guamá River. Source: www.qualenergia.it
A symbolic location — the Amazon — and a historic date — ten years since the conclusion of the Paris Agreement on emissions in 2015.
The Conference of the Parties (COP) is a gathering of countries that joined the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.
The most controversial initiative is the “Belém Commitment on Sustainable Fuels”, proposed by the Brazilian government on October 14 at a pre-COP event in Brasília and known as “Belém 4x”: to support the global goal of quadrupling the production and use of sustainable fuels by 2035.
Italy, together with Japan and India, has already expressed its support for the initiative, which aims to promote the spread of hydrogen and its derivatives, biogas, biofuels, and renewable synthetic fuels (e-fuels).
Italy is leading in Europe in the “opposition” to the EU regulation requiring that, by 2035, only new cars with zero emissions can be sold, in practice banning internal combustion engines in favor of fully electric vehicles.
However, as noted by the independent organization Transport & Environment (T&E), “the expansion of biofuel production has led to catastrophic consequences: vast areas of land have been cleared for crops such as oil palm, soy, sugarcane, and corn. Recent T&E projections show that, under current growth trends and policies, 90% of biofuels by 2030 will still depend on food and feed crops.”
More broadly, since we wrote about Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — plans containing official climate commitments that each country signing the Paris Agreement submits to the United Nations — the UN has noted several achievements, but also many uncertainties.
The main energy-related commitments adopted at recent Conferences of the Parties — from the conference in Glasgow in 2021 to the one in Baku last year — are as follows: triple renewable energy capacity to 11.2 TW by 2030; double the average annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030; Gradually reduce coal-based power generation without emission reductions; phase out the use of fossil fuels (and related subsidies).
Another issue that requires resolution is climate financing.
As BloombergNEF writes in a paper analyzing the uncertainties associated with COP30, there are significant geographical disparities in investments in renewable energy.
It was expected that emerging markets (excluding China) would invest $140 billion in renewable energy in 2024, compared with $49 billion in 2015. Nevertheless, these economies accounted for only 19% of global clean energy investment last year, compared with an average of about 18% over the past decade.
And in emerging markets, most capital remains concentrated in a few large or high-income countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa, while low-income developing countries receive only a small fraction.
According to BloombergNEF, this imbalance is “striking, given that emerging markets account for about 40% of global emissions and more than 60% of the world’s population.” Therefore, “aligning capital flows with this growing share of demand and emissions will be crucial to achieving global decarbonization goals.”
Another important issue concerns the costs of adapting to global warming.
BloombergNEF also emphasizes that “the physical consequences of climate change already represent a significant financial risk, costing the global economy at least $1.4 trillion a year.”
A country’s preparedness for the consequences of extreme events such as floods, typhoons, heatwaves, and droughts is becoming increasingly important for reducing economic damage to infrastructure, businesses, and communities.
However, most countries do not allocate sufficient funds for climate change adaptation policies and measures, although some governments “are beginning to view climate resilience as a strategic investment rather than merely a cost center.”
In essence, COP-30 will need to address the issue of a fair and inclusive energy transition, including the allocation of financial flows to the poorest economies and concrete targets for adaptation to global warming.
The current geopolitical landscape complicates matters: Trump’s denial of the climate change problem, trade disputes with China related to tariffs and export controls on critical raw materials, not to mention disagreements among the 27 EU member states regarding environmental policy.
Brussels has yet to finalize its official energy and climate plans to present at COP-30. Meanwhile, Chinese leader Xi Jinping stated at the UN General Assembly in September that the country would reduce emissions by 7–10% by 2035. However, this target is not particularly ambitious compared with the country’s potential.
Meanwhile, a Production Gap Report published in September by several international research institutes estimated that by 2030, global fossil fuel production will exceed the level consistent with the goal of limiting the average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 120%. The 1.5°C target — the most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement — is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve.
As BloombergNEF concludes, “the transition to a low-carbon economy is not happening fast enough to achieve the net-zero target agreed upon in Paris ten years ago.”
“Net zero” requires much stricter commitments and targets than those discussed at recent policy conferences. It remains to be seen whether Brazil will change course, but there is much doubt.
